Monday, December 13, 2010
The Final Frontier
As an avid Science Fiction and computer gaming geek I figured the logical forecast for me to choose would be the Final Frontier: Preludes to Deep Space Travel.
The author William E. Halal speaks of Space Tourism, bases on the Moon and Mars, Star Travel and the possibilities of contact with alien life. Space Tourism is definitely the next wave in travel beyond our atmosphere. AS the government keep cutting back NASA's budget and limiting their ability to actually accomplish anything, the private sector will definitely move ahead. In just a matter of a few years a person will be able to at least hit Earth's orbit and in a few decades may even be able to visit the Moon. I believe a Moon base will be developed, but the odds are it will be a private endeavor. This is due to the abundance of resources available there for the taking. NASA most likely will set its sights on Mars. The only alien life I think that could exist in our solar system would be microbial. it would take the ability to travel to the stars to have any chance of finding any complex life. For this we are still centuries if not millennia away from having the technology to travel that far. We have come far in the last hundred years, I just hope I live long enough to see a human actually walk on Mars.
The author William E. Halal speaks of Space Tourism, bases on the Moon and Mars, Star Travel and the possibilities of contact with alien life. Space Tourism is definitely the next wave in travel beyond our atmosphere. AS the government keep cutting back NASA's budget and limiting their ability to actually accomplish anything, the private sector will definitely move ahead. In just a matter of a few years a person will be able to at least hit Earth's orbit and in a few decades may even be able to visit the Moon. I believe a Moon base will be developed, but the odds are it will be a private endeavor. This is due to the abundance of resources available there for the taking. NASA most likely will set its sights on Mars. The only alien life I think that could exist in our solar system would be microbial. it would take the ability to travel to the stars to have any chance of finding any complex life. For this we are still centuries if not millennia away from having the technology to travel that far. We have come far in the last hundred years, I just hope I live long enough to see a human actually walk on Mars.
My Thoughts on the Delphi Method
The Delphi method is used to bring a group of individuals to a consensus when brainstorming an idea or problem. If there is a problem that a group of individuals is trying to solve this method is used in several steps.
1. Define the issue
a. Identify exactly what the issue is and what it may affect. The problem statement should be clear and easy for everyone in the group to understand.
2. Develop the Delphi group and give them the problem.
a. Here is where you gather a group for the Delphi method and give each of them the problem to work on. This group can be small or very large. A normal sized group seems to be about 20 individuals. There is no need to hold meetings as everyone needs to look at the problem on their own.
3. Gather the responses.
a. Gather the responses that everyone sends back on the problem and compile into a sorted list. It is acceptable to mix up the answers to get more creative responses when you send it out again.
4. Send the List out to everyone.
a. Send the compiled list back out to the group and have them rank the answers by a method you choose. Always include the original question with the list. Some Delphi groups may work on several issues at the same time.
5. Repeat sending the list as needed.
a. It may take several communications with the group to formulate a solid plan to the issue. Basically until everyone comes to a consensus.
I personally see a couple of flaws in this process. The main one is that if the right individuals are not in the group I don't see how you could reach the correct conclusion. An example would be using the Delphi method to determine the best course of action for implementing a safe ecommerce site. If the group is not made up of at least some technical experts you will never be able to design it.
1. Define the issue
a. Identify exactly what the issue is and what it may affect. The problem statement should be clear and easy for everyone in the group to understand.
2. Develop the Delphi group and give them the problem.
a. Here is where you gather a group for the Delphi method and give each of them the problem to work on. This group can be small or very large. A normal sized group seems to be about 20 individuals. There is no need to hold meetings as everyone needs to look at the problem on their own.
3. Gather the responses.
a. Gather the responses that everyone sends back on the problem and compile into a sorted list. It is acceptable to mix up the answers to get more creative responses when you send it out again.
4. Send the List out to everyone.
a. Send the compiled list back out to the group and have them rank the answers by a method you choose. Always include the original question with the list. Some Delphi groups may work on several issues at the same time.
5. Repeat sending the list as needed.
a. It may take several communications with the group to formulate a solid plan to the issue. Basically until everyone comes to a consensus.
I personally see a couple of flaws in this process. The main one is that if the right individuals are not in the group I don't see how you could reach the correct conclusion. An example would be using the Delphi method to determine the best course of action for implementing a safe ecommerce site. If the group is not made up of at least some technical experts you will never be able to design it.
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